Years ago, I remember pontificating that open source would never touch the application market. Narrowly viewing open source through the prism of the day, I said things like this (to John Koenig at IT Managers Journal):
To date, enterprise-focused open source has been best in those areas of the software stack that have a broad (approaching universal) user population. Things like operating systems and browsers. When you have a population with the aptitude and interest in improving something (like the Linux kernel), there's simply no better way to develop it -- let users develop to what they want.
Open source works less well in applications that have a smaller niche of users. It's not that open source development communities can't do applications because we find FireFox, OpenOffice, and others, or that they can't do vertical market applications, because we …
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